The problem with autocrats is that they often double down rather than lose face. An autocrat who backs down usually ends up be an ex-autocrat.
I honestly don't get this one. The shape doesn't suggest anything to me.
This one is a 4 out of 3 degree of difficulty. The shape is the outline of the Chosin reservoir in Korea. Putin's difficulties, Ukrainian advances and Xi Jinping's recent visit to Kazakhstan make me nervous.